Latvia’s Prime Minister Resigns: Three Questions
On 14 August, following the split in the coalition government, Latvia’s Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš announced to resign. Kariņš New Unity (JV) party which formed a coalition with National Alliance and United List in the 2022 elections will be dissolved due to persisting differences and a new prime minister will be chosen. The clash of interest is due to objections from the National Alliance (NA) and Combined List (AS) on the proposal against Karins to include the Progressive Party (PRO), the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS). Apart from this, differences also exist in approving policies relating to welfare schemes and economic growth. Karins said: “For any country, there are difficulties when someone tries to hold on to their office.”

How New Unity won 2022 Saeima elections?
Until 2019 due to wide differences, forming a coalition was a challenge. The win of the New Unity party in the October 2022 elections was viewed as a positive signal as it laid the basis for continued political stability. This was possible due to a shuffle in the support for other competing parties. Harmony Party (a centre-left pro-Russian party) which had topped in the 2018 election, lost the majority in 2022, the Union List which had competed for the first time came third and the Union of Greens and Farmer vote share increased by three per cent. The divide in votes and the inability to form a coalition by other parties led to Karins’s success to form a coalition after 2018, again in the 2022 elections with the National Alliance and the Conservatives maneuvering through COVID-19, the war in Ukraine. It projected safety for Latvia against Russian aggression and provided scope to engage closely with NATO.

What are the differences within the coalition over Karins?
When the coalition was signed in 2022, Latvia was affected by the war in Ukraine similar to Europe in terms of inflation, and the energy crisis. By 2023, this inflation lowered by 6.4 per cent but not the differences within the coalition. Karins decision to include ZZS and PRO in the existing coalition with NA and AS was proposed to implement reforms. This was not well taken by the existing partners as they fear more members would lead to more differences. According to NA and AS, issues such as “..school network arrangement, improvement of health care situation, labour force issue, stock exchange listing of state-owned capital companies, social issues.” Missed priorities are top among the concerns of NA and AS. Apart from this missed priorities of the government and personal differences over budget to health and education between the JV and AS party heads cracked the coalition.

What’s ahead for the JV?
The JV has managed to increase its representation in 2022 in the parliament from eight to twenty-six mandates. This was possible not due to socio-economic development but due to people’s aversion to Russia’s aggression and the government’s timely response. JV’s coalition with NA and AS held 54 votes in total in the parliament. After the dissolution opens a possibility for JV to join with  ZZS and PRO giving 52 seats to maintain the majority and prevent another snap election or intermediary government.

References
Claudia Chiappa, “Latvian prime minister announces resignation,” Politico, 14 August 2023
Ilona Bērziņa, “OPINION | Latvian PM is the architect of his own government’s collapse,” BNN, 21 June 2023
“Three Latvian parties sign coalition deal to form government,” Associated Press, 14 December 2022
Phil Juris Rozenvalds, “Krisjanis Karins governments: competitors to friends or friends to enemies?,” The Baltic Times, 26 July 2023
Padmashree Anandhan, “Latvia Elections 2022: Three takeaways | War in Ukraine: Day 226,” NIAS Europe Daily Brief, 08 October 2022